I think you're absolutely right, but this falls in the category of a lot of the comments in this thread: the "for now" category. I think anyone who assumes that the iPad or something-like-the-iPad (Windows 8, if you like) isn't where the vast majority of the market is heading, is going to miss the boat. The history of business is filed with the tombstones of once profitable companies that missed the boat.
If Microsoft misses the boat it's not going to be because they didn't spend development time on unprofitable products like single-license Office for iPad. The winners of any movement are those who own the platform, Microsoft is correctly focusing their efforts there. The other option is to focus on software and become the next Atari.
